[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS CENTERED NEAR 39.9N 44.8W AT 21/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 547 NM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING E-NE AT 17
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF THE CENTER. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 1010 MB LOW HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH AT
21/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM 29N85W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO
20N87W. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN A DAY OR SO...AND SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 22N81W TO 21N87W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CUBA...SE GULF OF
MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO S OF 29N W OF 90W...
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 77W...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS S OF 26N W OF 75W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF HISPANIOLA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N23W TO 5N32W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250/300 NM
E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND HAS
BEEN DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 17N16W ALONG 11N21W TO 8N26W. THE ITCZ STARTS W OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N33W ALONG 6N42W 7N53W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 6W
TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 12W-22W...AND FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NW TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR
NE GULF. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 92W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER S
ALABAMA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH TO OVER THE FAR NE GULF. THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE E GULF IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER YUCATAN
TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT POSSIBLY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NE TO THE E
GULF SUN AND MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
E TO 21N63W GIVING THE CARIBBEAN NE FLOW ALOFT. THE ACTIVITY IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER COLOMBIA CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 10N E OF 79W. THIS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SAT AND THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ALOFT...BUT BRING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS. THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS N OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 29N70W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 24N73W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N67W TO 25N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 28N64W TO 22N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 33N72W
AND A SECOND 1019 MB HIGH SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 27N61W.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FROM 21N63W ENE TO BEYOND 32N35W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 27N55W TO BEYOND 32N42W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A 1020 MB
HIGH OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 29N32W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
NW THROUGH THU NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ALONG 26N THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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