[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS CENTERED NEAR 38.9N 46.4W AT 21/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT ABOUT 550 NM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING E-NE
AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
30 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE CENTER OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE.

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N86W AT 21/0300 UTC WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N84W THROUGH THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE NE YUCATAN NEAR 21N87W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
BY THAT TIME AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY.
BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
E GULF S OF 19N E OF 90W...NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 77W...AND
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS S OF 27N W OF 76W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 12N26W TO
6N28W MOVING W 15-20 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 20-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO NEAR
18N67W TO 13N68W MOVING WNW 25-30 KT. WAVE IS LOSING ITS
DEFINITION WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W TO 9N22W. THE ITCZ STARTS W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 7N30W ALONG 7N45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
5N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 10W TO THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 13W-23W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
30W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE N YUCATAN
PENINSULA NW TO THE TEXAS COAST COVERING ALL BUT THE NE GULF.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-28N W OF 92W
TO INLAND OVER MEXICO AND S TEXAS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
NE GULF EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR PENSACOLA SE TO NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA. THE ACTIVITY OVER
THE E GULF IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.
THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE W TO THE CENTRAL GULF
THU THROUGH SAT POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE TO THE EASTERN GULF SUN AND MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E ALONG
20N GIVING THE CARIBBEAN NE TO ENE FLOW ALOFT. THE ACTIVITY IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER COLOMBIA HAVE MOVED
INTO THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 10N E OF 78W. THIS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
AND THU THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SAT/SUN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CUBA N TO THE GEORGIA
COAST FURTHER ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY OVER FLORIDA DESCRIBED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
31N67W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 26N75W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 33N66W TO 25N72W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-32N W OF 62W TO THE
SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG 20N TO 60W THEN ENE TO BEYOND 32N37W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 28N52W TO BEYOND
32N41W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB
HIGHS NEAR 30N34W AND 27N53W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW
THROUGH THU NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ALONG 26N THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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