[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS CENTERED NEAR 38.5N 49.0W AT 20/2100 UTC
MOVING E AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 27N82W TO
21N88W. MARINE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REGISTER A SHARP
CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SE WINDS ON THE ERN
SIDE OF THE AXIS GUSTING TO 25 KT. LAST VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE
DAY REVEALED A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH AXIS
NEAR 25N85W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N E OF 85W INCLUDING
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...AND SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N19W TO 7N23W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SAHARAN DUST
COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS. ANY CONVECTION
TO THE SW OF THE WAVE AXIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N64W TO 13N66W MOVING W-NW AT 20-25
KT. THE WAVE IS QUICKLY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
TROUGHING THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED NO ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
10N19W. THEN IT REAPPEARS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N24W ALONG
6N33W TO 7N41W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO 5N54W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 50W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 25W-40W AND E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER N MEXICO IS HELPING TO ADVECT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO
THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOTICED IN
THIS REGION BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION W OF
92W...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 150 NM OFF THE MEXICAN COAST N OF
TAMPICO TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. THE SECOND
REGION OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED TO AN ELONGATED SURFACE
TROUGH DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AT A SLOW RATE WITH CONVECTION AFFECTING A GREAT
PORTION OF THE GULF E OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 19N W OF 78W...ASSOCIATED TO
THE BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER ERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ALSO OVER
THIS REGION SUPPORTING THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY. AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD...PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...WITH
10-20 KT EASTERLY TRADES OBSERVED E OF 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN
PORTION OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLC W OF 37W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
33N65W TO 24N71W. THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 22N-31N BETWEEN 57W-69W...AS WELL AS
FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 69W-80W. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1024 MB
HIGHS...ONE CENTERED NEAR 27N55W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR
30N37W. THE FAIR WEATHER OVER THIS REGION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED TO
SAHARAN DUST DEPICTED ON THE THE METEOSAT-9 SAHARAN AIR LAYER
TRACKING PRODUCT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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