[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS CENTERED NEAR 38.1N 51.3W AT 20/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 520 NM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING E AT 19 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N22W TO 16N19W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND
COINCIDES WITH A VERY WEAK 700-850 MB TROUGH THAT HAS PROGRESSED
OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
AT THIS TIME DUE TO SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS. ANY CONVECTION TO THE SW OF THE WAVE
AXIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N64W TO 18N62W MOVING W-NW AT 20-25
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N50W
AND IS QUICKLY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING
THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SE GULF OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
07N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N28W TO 06N34W TO 07N43W TO 04N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 22W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N99W AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
NEAR 16N94W E-NE TO NEAR 23N76W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN REGION ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO
THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF
85W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THESE AREAS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SW OF A LINE
FROM 29N95W TO 21N88W...AND EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 27N81W TO 20N88W. WHILE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE IN PLACE FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS...THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF...POTENTIALLY AS A BROAD SURFACE
LOW...PROVIDING AN ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. IN THE MEANTIME...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS SW
NORTH CAROLINA IS SLOWLY ERODING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS NW
AND IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH BRISK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR
16N94W E-NE TO NEAR 23N76W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
MAXIMIZED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC N OF 17N W OF 72W. THIS AREA ALOFT ALONG WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 80W-86W. THE
SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARDS THE NW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION
FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY QUIET DUE
TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE
TRADES. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
IS QUICKLY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGHING THAT
EXISTS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN AND IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC N OF 28N
BETWEEN 60W-78W WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 34N60W TO 29N77W.
THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N60W TO
29N70W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM
22N-31N BETWEEN 59W-75W...AND FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 75W-82W. TO
THE NORTH OF 30N...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AS A 1024 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N70W. OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1023 MB HIGHS
ONE CENTERED NEAR 28N57W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 31N38W.
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST PRIMARILY E OF 55W. A COLD FRONT
IS ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N20W TO 27N30W WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE...EXAMINING THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND DUST
PRODUCT IMAGERY...METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND THE CIMSS
SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT...A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST IS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 08N-23N
E OF 64W. AN ENHANCED AREA CENTERED NEAR 20N58W HAS REACHED THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND CONTINUES MOVING TO THE W-NW WHICH WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE HAZY SKY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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