[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS CENTERED NEAR 38.8N 56.0W AT 20/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT ABOUT 490 NM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING E-SE
AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OVER THE E QUADRANT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF SW AFRICA ALONG 21W/22W S OF 13N MOVING W
10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 21W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 30 KT.
WAVE IS A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE AND THUS IS FAST MOVING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 8N54W
TO 10N59W.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE AND HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 17N16W TO 11N20W. THE ITCZ STARTS W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 7N26W ALONG 6N37W 5N45W TO 8N55W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-11N
BETWEEN 9W-19W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF W AFRICA AND FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 35W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS. ONE IS CENTERED
INLAND OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 26N99W COVERING THE W GULF AND THE
SECOND COVERING THE E GULF CENTERED NEAR 28N86W. LOW LEVEL FLOW
COMBINED WITH OPPOSING UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 88W THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER S FLORIDA...FROM 20N-23N W OF 94W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO...AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE COAST S OF 20N E OF VERACRUZ. ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 91W. THE NE
GULF REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022
MB HIGH OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE SE GULF WED AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE S
CENTRAL GULF THU THEN DRIFT NW TO NEAR 24N93W SUN WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE E GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS EXTENDING GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY ENE FLOW ALOFT. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM OFF THE COAST
OF CUBA NEAR 22N82W ALONG 18N87W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
15N87W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 77W-88W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE E
CARIBBEAN NE OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N70W TO TRINIDAD
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WED. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN WED
THEN BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NW TO THE
GEORGIA COAST WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH
BERMUDA TO 27N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC
FROM 30N67W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 25N78W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND
30N TO 20N W OF 60W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E
OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N45W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW TOWARD FLORIDA WED THROUGH THU. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD BEHIND THE TROUGH WED THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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