[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON THAT SUPPORTS A
1004 MB GALE FORCE SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 40N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER
IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT N-NE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N54W TO 15N52W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
ACCORDING TO GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING IN WHICH A SMALL AREA OF 45-50 KT
WINDS ALOFT IS FOUND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 51W-56W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 50W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N66W TO 19N62W MOVING W-NW AT 20
KT. THE LOW-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CONTINUES TO
STRETCH IN A NE TO SW ORIENTATION AS THE WAVE FINDS ITSELF ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N18W TO
10N21W TO 06N29W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N29W TO 05N39W TO 07N52W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 16W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO NEAR 24N99W
THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING EASTWARD TO ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N88W. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ADVECTING MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...AND PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF 86W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
MAXIMIZED EAST OF EACH UPPER LEVEL LOW GENERATING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF W
OF 93W...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 26N E OF
86W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS...FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM
THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
23N81W IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND LIKELY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF...
POTENTIALLY AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW...PROVIDING AN ENHANCEMENT TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. IN THE MEANTIME...A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC...IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH
BRISK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA INTO PORTIONS
OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N88W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR
23N81W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 17N-23N
BETWEEN 75W-84W. THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING TOWARDS THE NW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY QUIET DUE
TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE
TRADES. WHILE ONE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W IS DAMPENING OUT AS IT
TRAVERSES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AN APPROACHING MORE MOISTURE-
LADEN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE LESSER
ANTILLES BY WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC N OF
30N BETWEEN 55W-76W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS THE SPECIAL
FEATURES 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
23N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA
FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 73W-82W AND FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 61W-73W.
THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE BY LATE THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND INTO THE
SW NORTH ATLC BY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N45W WITH FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTING E OF 55W. OF NOTE...EXAMINING THE
GOES-R PROVING GROUND DUST PRODUCT IMAGERY...METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE
IMAGERY...AND THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT...A
LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC FROM 08N-23N E OF 60W. AN ENHANCED AREA CENTERED
NEAR 17N52W IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NE CARIBBEAN
REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE HAZY SKY CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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