[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 380 NM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA
SCOTIA. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS MORNING.
THE CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ARE DECREASING AS THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 10 KT. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 20-25 KT.
WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND FAST MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 17N MOVING WNW NEAR 20 KT.
THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES LEADING SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT ARE FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN 55W-61W INCLUDING THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 15N17W CONTINUING ALONG 11N21W TO 6N29W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 5N38W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 15W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 49W-59W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 5N12W
7N22W TO 5N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS. ONE IS CENTERED
INLAND OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 26N98W COVERING THE W GULF AND THE
SECOND COVERING THE E GULF CENTERED NEAR 26N87W. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA OVER THE SE GULF TO
NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 88W.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 90W AND IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-96W. THE NE GULF REMAINS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
INTO THE SE GULF WED AS AN ASSOCIATED BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE S
CENTRAL GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY LATE THU THEN DRIFT NW TO
NEAR 24N93W BY LATE SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE E GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR HAITI
EXTENDING AN AXIS NW ACROSS E CUBA TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
FORT MYERS AND E TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A 1009 MB LOW REMAINS
INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ALONG 19N83W TO 21N80W. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N TO INLAND
OVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W
OF LINE FROM SW HAITI TO NE NICARAGUA LEAVING THE S AND E
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO WED AND THU. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
WED. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN WED AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN
THE DISCUSSION AREA AS THE UPPER LOW/SURFACE LOW MOVES PULLS
FURTHER AWAY. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS E OF BERMUDA ALONG 32N62W
TO 27N65W CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 31N61W ALONG 28N66W TO 22N74W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 400 NM SE OF THE TROUGH S
OF 27N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
BAHAMAS TO THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF 71W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NE
ALONG 25N58W TO BEYOND 32N58W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 26N65W TO BEYOND 32N57W. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E
OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 31N45W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW THROUGH TONIGHT APPROACHING FLORIDA WED AND
THU. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE E BEHIND THE TROUGH WED
THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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