[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 475 NM NE OF BERMUDA.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING. THE
CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ARE DECREASING AS THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 9 TO 13 KT. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS IS
WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THUS...NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 16N16W CONTINUING ALONG 11N21W TO 8N26W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 6N36W TO 7N43W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 6N47W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE ITCZ TO 11N BETWEEN 48W-54W. SMALL SCATTERED CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 6N12W 7N20W 5N36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS. ONE IS CENTERED
INLAND OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 36N99W COVERING THE THE W GULF AND
THE SECOND COVERING THE E GULF CENTERED NEAR 25N87W.THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF 85W. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA...OVER THE
NW GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 90W-96W...AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S
OF 20N E OF 93W. OTHERWISE THE GULF REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET TONIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CLEAR SKIES. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH OVER NORTH
CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE E GULF
TONIGHT. WEAK LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA WED THEN
DRIFTING NW THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR HAITI
EXTENDING AN AXIS WNW ACROSS CUBA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
E TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF A LINE FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO 15N82W
TO OVER CUBA AND HAITI. THE 1009 MB LOW HAS MOVED INLAND OVER
HONDURAS AND AT 19/0300 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 15N85W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ALONG 18N83W
TO 21N80W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 83W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
S AND E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW REACHING
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA TUE NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE TROPICAL WILL REACH THE E CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN LATE FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS
THE UPPER LOW/SURFACE LOW MOVES PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO
27N67W CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE 1006 MB LOW IN SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N59W EXTENDING ALONG 26N66W TO 23N73W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN
66W-72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
BAHAMAS TO THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF 71W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS NE ALONG 25N58W TO
BEYOND 32N49W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300 NM SE OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1027
MB HIGH NEAR 31N34W. SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT THEN WILL DRIFT W TUE APPROACHING FLORIDA
WED AND THU. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE E BEHIND THE
TROUGH WED THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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