[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
13N37W TO 3N38W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE WRN
SIDE OF A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N72W
TO 11N72W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS POPPED
UP OVER NE HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 68W-71W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN 70W-73W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA AT 12N16W CONTINUING OVER WATER ALONG 7N22W 4N30W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N30W ALONG 4N38W 1N51W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF
STRONG CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE COAST OF GUINEA FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 12W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 19W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OFF A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND INTO THE NRN GULF FROM FLORIDA TO ERN
TEXAS. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N92W
TO 25N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW
GULF ALONG 23N97W TO 19N95W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERS THE
ENTIRE SW GULF DUE TO THE CIRCULATION OF T.D. CARLOTTA NOW
INLAND OVER MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREA S OF 23N ACROSS THE SW GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL.
STRONGER ACTIVITY IS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SURFACE WINDS
ARE MAINLY E-SE RANGING FROM 10-15 KTS WITH MORE VARIABLE
DIRECTION AND STRONGER WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE N CENTRAL GULF IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
VERTICALLY ALIGNED AND DRIFT WWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR THIS TROUGH AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SW
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOIST CONDITIONS COVER MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT WITH BOTH A
TROPICAL WAVE S OF HISPANIOLA AND A SURFACE TROUGH JUST E OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOIST WLY FLOW ALOFT IS FLOWING BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN CENTRAL AMERICAN AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC. THIS COMBINATION IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 72W WITH
PATCHES OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED THROUGHOUT. STRONG
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ACROSS NRN CENTRAL AMERICA
INCLUDING NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...EL
SALVADOR...BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOME ACTIVITY IS
ALSO ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. SOME OF THIS IS ENHANCED BY A
PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM N OF NRN
COLOMBIA PARALLELING THE COSTA RICA AND PANAMA E COASTS
CONTINUING ACROSS NICARAGUA TO EL SALVADOR. BROAD SURFACE
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MAIN AXIS BEGINNING
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NW. MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY. FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS COVER THE AREA
E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG WITH TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS.
THE ERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD EXPECT TO STAY FRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC ALONG 72W. DRY AIR IS
WRAPPING AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH PROVIDING FAIR SURFACE
CONDITIONS. MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IMPACT THE AREAS E OF
THE TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE
TROUGHS. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
32N59W ALONG 26N67W 24N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXTEND 175 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 60W-70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 71W-79W. THE SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N65W TO 27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS E OF 70W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 44W SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGE
AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N23W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
NEAR 16N39W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC
CENTERED OVER NW AFRICA NEAR 20N11W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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