[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1735 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 13N35W TO 4N37W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS LOCATED AT THE
LEADING EDGE A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN EXTENDING
FROM 17N70W TO 11N72W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. DESPITE THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THE WAVE OS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA
OF UNFAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT AND THUS NO ACTIVITY IS DETECTED AT
THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 7N20W TO 6N27W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS
CONTINUES WSW TO 5N35W. THE ITCZ REAPPEARS W OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N40W TO 2N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N E OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS INTRUDING OVER THE FAR NE
BASIN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF FROM 29N92W TO
25N85W. DOPPLER RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 130 NM NE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AS WELL AS N OF 28N
BETWEEN 90W-95W. MARINE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS HAVE
REPORTED GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD AND DEVELOP INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR 27N92W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
LOUISIANA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER AREA OF ACTIVE
WEATHER TO WATCH FOR IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND COASTAL
WATERS NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE OUTER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA IS AFFECTING THIS REGION WITH
SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 22N W OF 91W. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...MAXIMIZED
AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED 50 NM OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-21N W OF 80W. SIMILAR IS OVER
THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN...WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDING OVER PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTRIES. A TROPICAL IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM
17N70W TO 11N72W. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AN
AREA OF UNFAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT AND THUS NO ACTIVITY IS DETECTED
AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN
THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH IS OVER THE WRN ATLC SUPPORTING
A 1009 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 31N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SSW FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 26N67W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT OVER THE BAHAMAS IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 270 NM NW OF
THE TROUGH AXIS...AS WELL AS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 70W-77W. ASIDE
THE MAIN LOW...MULTIPLE SWIRLS ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE THROUGH AXIS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BEFORE LIFTING NNE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
N-CENTRAL ATLC AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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