[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N31W 7N34W 3N34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 31W AND 37W. THE WAVE IS CLOSE
TO COMPARATIVE MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N61W 14N64W 10N65W.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 27N65W
21N64W 16N62W 14N63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 17N
BETWEEN 60W AND 65W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR THE
BORDER OF GUINEA-BISSAU AND GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 6N20W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N20W TO 7N33W 4N40W...AND 4N51W NEAR THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 11W
AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N89W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EMANATES ULTIMATELY FROM THE WIND
REGIME THAT SURROUNDS HURRICANE CARLOTTA THAT IS ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 200 NM TO THE WEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF FLORIDA...TO 1014 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N87W...AND CONTINUING TO 26N90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
TO THE CENTER OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL
WATERS OF MEXICO...FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NORTHWARD...
FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W...AND IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N...
IN LARGELY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS WESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 28N87W LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND 20 KNOT WINDS THAT SURROUND IT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 12N TO 17N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N61W 14N64W
10N65W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 27N65W
21N64W 16N62W 14N63W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 11N81W. BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS COLOMBIA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS FROM 5N
TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 72W...AND THE 20 KNOT WINDS
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N78W TO 24N75W
IN THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N65W 21N64W
16N62W 14N63W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER SEPARATE
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N67W...TO 28N66W
AND 26N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N74W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS FROM 24N TO 26N...AND BEYOND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 24N
TO 33N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W...AND FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND
80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 16/0000 UTC WAS 2.52 INCHES. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N22W...TO
30N30W 25N46W 21N66W TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N80W.
A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANT OF A FORMER COLD FRONT...PASSES
THROUGH 32N40W TO 26N48W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N22W
24N29W 18N38W 14N46W...NOT ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT IF ANY
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY THE 30N67W LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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