[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N30W TO 4N33W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
WAVE IS LOCATED IN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 27W-30W.
ELSEWHERE...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-12N
BETWEEN 27W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 18N60W TO
VENEZUELA AT 10N63W MOVING WNW AT 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 61W-66W.
ELSEWHERE...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-18N
BETWEEN 58W-67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 7N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
7N21W TO 9N32W TO 5N40W TO 4N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 5N-11N
BETWEEN 6W-11W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 21W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC... A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TAMPA FLORIDA
TO THE LOW CENTER TO 27N90W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF STATES FROM E TEXAS TO ALABAMA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...W
CUBA...AND OVER CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NE GULF. EXPECT... MORE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
20N-22N BETWEEN 81W-90W...AND FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 80W-83W.
FURTHER S...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF COSTA
RICA NEAR 11N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N
BETWEEN 77W-81W TO INCLUDE E PANAMA. SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXTEND INLAND FROM W PANAMA TO BELIZE. 15-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
OVER THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N68W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 26N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
58W-67W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N42W TO 28N45W TO 22N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE TROUGH. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N24W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-75W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC
FRONT. EXPECT...THE FRONTAL CONVECTION AND SHOWERS TO MOVE E
WITH THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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