[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1735 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLAND NEAR 16N22W TO
5N27W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS LOCATED AT THE LEADING EDGE A
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
AREA FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N52W
TO THE COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 6N55W MOVING WNW NEAR 15-20 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N BETWEEN 50W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
22N85W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N W OF
82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 7N30W AND
CONTINUES WEST ALONG 6N40W TO 9N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROF.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON...DUE TO WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND RELATIVELY DRY AND
SUBSIDENT UPPER ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTICED ON DOPPLER RADAR OVER THE
NE AND N-CENTRAL GULF...DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N85W TO 28N89W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
OF FOUND WITHIN 70 NM OFF THE ENTIRE COAST OF LOUISIANA
ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
26N89W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE OUTER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL
STORM CARLOTTA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING
THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER MOST OF THE WRN
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
COLOMBIA TO OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND DISSIPATES...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD
SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THAT
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N73W TO 28N78W. THIS FRONT IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AXIS. A BROAD DEEP LAYER
TROUGH IS OVER THE N-ATLC SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED 1007 MB LOW N
OF THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO OUR
REGION NEAR 32N46W ALONG 26N51W TO 23N61W. SCATTERED WEAK
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY LIES A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 32N45W TO
24N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS CONVECTIVE AREA COINCIDES WITH
THE STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUGGESTED ON UPPER LEVEL WIND
MODEL DATA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N27W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC LATER THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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