[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 15N21W
TO 4N26W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE A SURGE
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY WITH A BROAD AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 4N-14N
BETWEEN 18W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N50W TO
6N52W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-10N W OF THE
WAVE TO 56W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N82W TO 14N83W
MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL. THE ITCZ STARTS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N27W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N41W TO E OF THE W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 8N50W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N54W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 31W-35W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 43W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS S TEXAS TO THE NEAR CEDAR KEY
FLORIDA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR NAPLES
FLORIDA ALONG 23N90W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE COAST OF S
MEXICO NEAR 19N95W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 14/0300
UTC EXTENDS FROM 22N89W ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO NEAR 17N92W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 96W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING AT 14/0300 UTC FROM SE
ALABAMA INTO THE GULF JUST E OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE COAST
OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH A 1016 MB
HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 26N89W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E THROUGH EARLY FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NE GULF THU BECOMING STATIONARY FROM
NEAR TAMPA BAY TO 28N87W BY THU EVENING INTO FRI BEFORE MOVING E
OF FLORIDA LATER FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD S OVER
GEORGIA ON SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 14N78W TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH A SURFACE
LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N81W ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N E OF 75W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SAME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SE OF LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE ABC
ISLANDS. WEAK W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE WNW DISSIPATING
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE FAR W ATLC NEAR 32N79W
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 14/0300 UTC ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N77W TO THE FLORIDA COAST JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE. A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N75W TO 29N79W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BAHAMAS
EXTENDING AT 14/0300 UTC FROM 26N76W TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR
22N78W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 47W-63W SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N48W ALONG 27N53W TO 25N60W AND A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N47W ALONG 26N50W TO
23N55W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH S OF THE
AZORES LEAVING THE E ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU NIGHT.
THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO 28N80W THU NIGHT
BEFORE ACCELERATING EASTWARD AND DISSIPATING FROM A 1011 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 31N70W TO THE N BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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