[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N44W
TO 6N45W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 9N-11N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N79W TO 12N80W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS PARTIALLY OBSCURED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF WAVE AXIS N OF
17N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 18N16W ALONG 12N22W TO 6N31W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 5N37W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N45W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 14W-21W AND
FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 34W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS S TEXAS TO THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NEAR 25N85W. THE NARROW UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 25N89W 21N93W
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 13/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM
21N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N BETWEEN
91W-95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING AT
13/0900 UTC FROM SE GEORGIA INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N84W TO 29N88W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF
THE FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN TAMPA AND APALACHICOLA BAY. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH
ANCHORED NEAR 26N87W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL LINGER IN THE CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NE GULF WILL BE
PUSHED E OVER FLORIDA BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NE GULF THU AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM TAMPA BAY TO 28N87W
LATE THU AND FRI BEFORE MOVING E OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO NICARAGUA THEN N THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO GIVING MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH
EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 14N E OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-14N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA.
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 81W. W ATLC WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU SAT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS NW
THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN UNTIL DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN FRI.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
23N75W TO BEYOND 32N76W COVERING THE FAR W ATLC W OF 65W. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF FROM 65W-75W WITH A 1017 MB
HIGH NEAR 32N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SW OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AT
13/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM 26N74W THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO
THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 72W-78W. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC BETWEEN 45W-65W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N49W EXTENDING ALONG 26N54W
TO 25N64W WITH A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N47W
ALONG 26N50W TO 23N56W AND A COLD FRONT TO THE W EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N51W TO 27N57W THEN DISSIPATING TO 27N64W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 49W-53W.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES LEAVING THE E
ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL DISSIPATE BY THU. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE W ATLC TONIGHT WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
31N79W TO 29N81W. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N73W TO 28N80W THU
NIGHT BEFORE ACCELERATING E AND DISSIPATING FROM 1011 MB LOW
NEAR 31N70W TO THE N BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT. THE REMAINING TROUGH
WILL LINGER FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS OVER THE
WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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