[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N42W
TO 5N44W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N78W TO 10N79W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE TIP OF
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO 19N78W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N20W TO 6N29W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 5N34W 7N42W THE RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N46W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 10W-20W
INCLUDING THE COAST OF W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM 5N34W TO 10N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS S TEXAS TO THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NEAR 25N85W. THIS IS NARROWING
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT PREVIOUSLY DOMINATED THE GULF. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 24N90W TO
AN UPPER LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W TO OVER S MEXICO
BEYOND 17N96W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT AT 13/0300 UTC EXTENDS OVER THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 21N E OF 93W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND S MEXICO. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE GULF FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH A 1019 MB HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 28N92W. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL LINGER IN THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THU THEN DISSIPATING FRI
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NE OF THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG THE N COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO NICARAGUA THEN N
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO GIVING MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE DENSE CLOUD
COVER WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 72W-76W INCLUDING
HAITI AND THE SE COAST OF CUBA. W ATLC WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU THEN CONCENTRATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
LATE FRI AND SAT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE W
CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
E CARIBBEAN SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS ALONG 77W TO
BEYOND 32N COVERING THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC FROM 65W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE AT 13/0300 UTC EXTENDING FROM 26N73W THROUGH
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
71W-78W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-70W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W EXTENDING ALONG
26N54W TO 24N63W WITH A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
30N48W TO 25N52W AND A COLD FRONT TO THE W EXTENDING THROUGH
32N52W ALONG 29N56W TO 27N62W. A SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES LEAVING
THE E ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE W ATLC WED NIGHT REACHING FROM 32N73W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FRI MORNING THEN WILL REACH FROM 32N57W TO THE SE
BAHAMAS SAT MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT AND DEGENERATE INTO
A TROUGH THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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