[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N41W TO 5N42W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
41W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N76W TO 10N77W MOVING W NEAR 10-15
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 70W-81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 8N20W TO 6N28W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N28W TO 8N42W TO N BRAZIL AT 6N55W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-17W...
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 17W-25W...AND FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 51W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 27N90W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM COCOA BEACH
FLORIDA TO FORT MYERS FLORIDA MOVING E. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER E TEXAS...N OF HOUSTON...
FROM 29N-32N. FURTHER S...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 87W-92W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF WITH
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE N GULF...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS AND RAIN OVER N FLORIDA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND NICARAGUA FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 82W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.
FURTHER S...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. EXPECT CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 24N70W TO
21N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN
72W-76W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N54W
TO 28N60W TO 28N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N49W TO 24N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF
THE FRONT FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 48W-55W. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N28W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-70W
SUPPORTING THE FRONTS. EXPECT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION E OF THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA





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