[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 15N37W TO 8N39W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS NO CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
18N69W TO NEAR 11N72W MOVING W AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS
INACTIVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF ITS
AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N15W ALONG 7N21W TO 6N32W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
CONTINUES ALONG 6N44W TO 7N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N E OF 25W...AND
FROM 6N-12N W OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE TO NO LIFTING IS ASSOCIATED TO
THIS UPPER FEATURE...HAVING NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS. INSTEAD...DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION REMAINING INLAND OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
UP TO 15 KT IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR
27N87W. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY STABLE AIR COVERS A GREAT PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST OF IT RELATED TO SAHARAN DUST FROM WEST
AFRICA THAT IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS S OF 13N W OF 75W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
ENTERING THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE BASIN FROM THE DEEP TROPICS...
ASSOCIATED TO A STREAM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE REMAINS INACTIVE AS IT TRAVELS
WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING AN
OCCLUDED 1010 MB LOW N OF THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W ALONG 27N63W
DISSIPATING NEAR 30N71W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE ATTACHED TO
THE FRONT AXIS. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LIES A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N50W CONTINUING SW ALONG 24N60W...
THEN WESTWARD AS IS DISSIPATES TO NEAR 24N70W...WHERE IT BECOMES
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO ERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 125 NM
AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF 58W. THIS AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SUGGESTED ON UPPER LEVEL WIND MODEL DATA. SCATTERED WEAK TO
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A
STRONG 1030 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT WEST THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THROUGH WED AND DISSIPATE ON
THURSDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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