[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N34W TO 7N35W
MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE WAS RELOCATED BASED ON MODEL DATA
AND A BROAD SURGE OF MOISTURE AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN WAS RELOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A BROAD SURGE OF MOISTURE AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE NORTH PORTION OF THIS WAVE HAS
BROKEN AWAY AND IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W ALONG 8N21W TO 5N31W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 6N43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE S OF 10N W OF 10W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE FROM 9N15W TO 6N21W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 6N21W TO 4N27W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM
6N49W TO 5N52W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 8N50W TO OVER
TRINIDAD NEAR 10N61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 18N94W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAIN OVER
THE W GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE W ATLC OFF THE FLORIDA TO
CAROLINAS COASTS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED OVER THE N GULF
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG A LINE
FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA 29N89W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR CAILOU BAY.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF
ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
CONTINUING TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WED AND THU BEFORE DISSIPATING FRI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES NE OF THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA GIVING THE CARIBBEAN
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS
OVER THE BASIN BETWEEN 13N-17N. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA N OF PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA
GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W ALONG 12N79W
TO COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU AND PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN LATE FRI AND SAT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WED
AND THU BEFORE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN ON FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFF THE FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS COASTS
COVERING THE FAR W ATLC W OF 75W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC EXTENDS W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE FLORIDA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 26N73W
THROUGH THE S BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/E TIP
OF CUBA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 23N64W 23N71W TO 22N78W. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC BETWEEN 50W-75W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W EXTENDING ALONG 26N57W TO 24N68W
AND A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT TO THE W EXTENDING THROUGH 32N58W
ALONG 29N64W TO 32N71W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN 54W-59W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E AND 120 NM W OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT E OF 54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY A
PORTION OF A THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE...EXTENDS FROM 25N52W
TO N OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N64W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1030 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES LEAVING THE E ATLC WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE FAR W SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THROUGH WED AND DISSIPATE ON THU. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO FAR W ATLC THU. THIS FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT EXTENDS FROM 32N72W TO THE N BAHAMAS FRI MORNING
AND FROM 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
SAT MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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