[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING
FROM 12N29W TO 4N33W MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 4N-6N BETWEEN 27W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 23N60W THROUGH THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO 16N64W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
NARROW SURGE OF MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NE TO JUST S OF THE CENTRAL ATLC STATIONARY FRONT AS OBSERVED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CURRENTLY NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N19W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
6N28W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N34W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 4N41W 6N50W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 9N14W TO
5N26W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE AFRICA AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
48W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE SW COAST OF LOUISIANA S TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N92W. THIS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE W GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN
THE W ATLC OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT OVER THE E GULF TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR
NAPLES TO 23N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INLAND OVER S MEXICO MOVING INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 92W-96W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF
ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF TUE AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
WED AND THU BEFORE DISSIPATING FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NE OF
THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA GIVING
THE CARIBBEAN NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAIN OVER THE BASIN N OF
14N. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA OVER PORTIONS OF
PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY S OF 12N W OF 79W AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST OF PANAMA. A BAND
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
OVER HAITI NEAR 19N72W ALONG 19N77W TO THE W TIP OF CUBA NEAR
22N84W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 18N83W TO THE COAST OF THE
YUCATAN NEAR 19N87W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
W ATLC IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRI. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WED AND THE W CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
EXTENDING S TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND E TO 75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA BUT
ARE DIMINISHING. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS W INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER NE FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE W ATLC AT 12/0300 UTC EXTENDING FROM 26N72W
THROUGH THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS CHAIN TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM E AND 120 NM W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-75W SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N49W
EXTENDING ALONG 27N56W TO 24N64W AND A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE W ATLC ALONG 32N59W
31N63W TO 32N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 180/200 NM E AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
E OF 60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF
THE COLD FRONT E OF 61W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE
AZORES LEAVING THE E ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE NEWLY
DEVELOPED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND DISSIPATE ON THU. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE SE WED AND THU. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW
ATLC THU INTO FRI. THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N72W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT AND FROM 32N62W TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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