[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N28W TO 3N32W MOVING W NEAR 5-10
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE E
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 26W-29W. RAIN AND SHOWERS
ARE ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N59W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
15N63W MOVING WNW NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
NARROW SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS INACTIVE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL AT 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO 8N20W TO 7N28W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 6N33W TO 5N45W TO N BRAZIL AT 4N52W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 15W-23W...
AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 43W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO
A SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA N OF 28N. FURTHER S...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N-23N
BETWEEN 84W-87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS FAIR
WEATHER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT
SE TO S FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND RAIN TO PERSIST
OVER N FLORIDA FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND
GUATEMALA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 91W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
71W-78W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CREATING AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTRIBUTING
TO THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
33N75W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 32N49W TO 28N53W TO 23N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 48W-60W. RAIN AN SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1030
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N27W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 45W-70W SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT.
EXPECT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA





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