[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N27W TO 6N31W MOVING W NEAR 5-10
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 27W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N58W TO NEAR 15N63W MOVING WNW NEAR
10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WAVE REMAINS INACTIVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF ITS AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 7N21W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
7N27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N33W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N43W TO 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED WEAK TO
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ W OF 42W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 22W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BASE OF A RATHER DRY UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE TO NO LIFTING IS
ASSOCIATED TO THIS UPPER FEATURE...HAVING NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. INSTEAD...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS
REMAINED OVER THE INLAND COASTAL REGIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA SINCE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS AN
AXIS WESTWARD OVER THE GULF GENERATING A SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT OF UP TO 15 KT. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GULF TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS S OF
10N W OF 75W. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF AN INACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE BASIN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N74W. THIS IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE WRN ATLC. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N50W EXTENDING
ALONG 25N60W TO 23N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 62W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE W OF 62W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1030 MB
HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF IT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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