[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N25W TO
6N26W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 5N-9N BETWEEN 23W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N57W OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO
NEAR 12N62W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
NARROW SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45/60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 17N16W ALONG 11N19W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
8N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N28W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 4N42W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 9W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 45W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GULF OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA THEN SE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS UPPER FLOW IS
DRAWING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE NW GULF. AN UPPER HIGH IS
ANCHORED OVER GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
OVER THE SE STATES E OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST BETWEEN PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI
AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE N GULF COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO MISSISSIPPI HAS RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED INLAND OVER S MEXICO MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 94W-96W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS W OVER THE GULF
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NE GULF TUE AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WED AND THU
DISSIPATING FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NE OF THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. THE EXCEPTION
IS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM COLOMBIA OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N
E OF 82W AND S OF 13N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA. THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THOSE ISLANDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND
MARTINIQUE. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIS THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH FRI. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH TUE THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED
REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDS
INTO THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH
CAROLINA EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST.
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N76W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN
45W AND 70W WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W
EXTENDING ALONG 28N53W TO 26N59W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
JUST E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT E OF 62W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES
LEAVING THE E ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT
W OVER THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND DISSIPATE ON THU. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE SE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC WED AND THU. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO FAR W ATLC THU INTO FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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