[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N23W TO
7N24W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 20N56W
TO 11N59W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
NARROW SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE WAVE. THESE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
ACROSS BARBADOS AND ARE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 7N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 7N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N35W TO 4N47W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-12N
BETWEEN 11W-18W AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 24W-28W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 48W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GULF OVER W LOUISIANA
THEN SE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE NW GULF. AN UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER
GEORGIA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SE STATES E OF
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF WITHIN 75
NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 84W-89W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS W OVER THE E GULF ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF
TUE AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WED AND THU SHIFTING N OF THE
AREA FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. THE EXCEPTION
IS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM COLOMBIA OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N
TO INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.
THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT ARE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER REMARKABLY CLEAR
SKIS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE
TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE
AND WED REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GEORGIA EXTENDS INTO THE FAR W
ATLC W OF 70W. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA ARE IN THE W
ATLC WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W
ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR
32N72W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 47W AND 70W WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N49W EXTENDING ALONG 26N56W TO 24N63W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
23N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES LEAVING THE E ATLC WITH FAIR
WEATHER TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT W OVER THE BAHAMAS THROUGH WED AND
DISSIPATE ON THU. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT/MON MERGING WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT TUE WEAKENING
THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE SE THROUGH WED AND
THU. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR W ATLC FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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