[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N21W TO 8N22W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING ACROSS W AFRICA. A RECENT UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM
DAKAR SENEGAL INDICATES THAT THE WAVE PASSED THE STATION
SOMETIME DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENTLY CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO THE ITCZ REGION WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN 20W-23W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N55W TO 10N57W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
THE WAVE ALIGNS WITH A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
ALSO INDICATES BROAD CYCLONE SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS.
NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL AT 15N17W TO 11N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 7N23W ON THE W
SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N35W 6N43W 4N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE N CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY. A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM 32N87W TO 28N91W
WITH A SECOND LINE 30N91W TO 28N92W. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALSO
COVER THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 87W-93W. THERE HAVE BEEN MANY
REPORTS OF FLOODING ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE GULF COAST AND
FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE POSTED THROUGHOUT THAT AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE E SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN TEXAS TO THE SE GULF.
THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH
IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
MAINLY SE-SW SFC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD TO
THE S ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM SRN
MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CENTRAL CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. DRY AIR ALOFT IS WRAPPING AROUND THE RIDGE
SUPPORTING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN CENTRAL AMERICA IS
SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN COASTS OF
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA AS WELL AS OFFSHORE OF COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY
THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS WRN COSTA RICA
AND SRN PANAMA. DRY AIR ALOFT ALSO COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN
PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
20-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS BESIDES POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A TROPICAL
WAVE STILL E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THAT SHOULD BE NEAR THE
ISLANDS BY 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE FAR WRN ATLC ALONG 77W
SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR
32N71W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVIOUSLY OVER THE
W ATLC HAS SHIFTED E AND IS NOW ALONG 60W. THE UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N52W
CONTINUING ALONG 27N57W 24N68W 25N74W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E AND S OF THE
AXIS. A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO S OF THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT ALONG 23N70W TO 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE 50 NM S OF THE TROUGH. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY AS A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPS
INTO THE AREA AND CATCHES UP WITH THE ORIGINAL FRONT. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC
SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR
35N29W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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