[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N20W TO 15N18W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY E OF 21W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN
16W-21W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N57W TO 17N54W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE...LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES AN OVERALL
WESTWARD MOVEMENT...MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS WELL DISPLACED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N43W TO 14N60W AND
CONTINUES TO ADVECT THIS MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF 50W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N21W TO
04N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 01N42W TO 07N39W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM NORTH AND 90 NM
SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN BETWEEN 21W-37W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-12N BETWEEN
37W-48W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 29N94W TO A
BASE NEAR 22N87W. MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
N OF 29N E OF 92W AS A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
NEAR 31N88W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 87W-93W THIS MORNING
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
E OF 90W. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10
TO 20 KT IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD GRADUALLY WESTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
LIGHTER ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN REMAIN TRANQUIL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE BASIN CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS RESULTING IN OVERALL CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IS GENERATING THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 81W-85W.
OTHERWISE...STRONG TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 18N BETWEEN 68W-88W REACHING 30 KT
IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. THE
ENHANCED TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
CUBA NEAR 21N77W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SE CONUS...AND PORTIONS
OF THE FAR WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC REGION ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING THAT IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF A DISSIPATING WARM
FRONT ANALYZED FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS N OF 28N W OF 77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N73W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 54W NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
TO A BASE NEAR 24N64W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N54W S-SW
TO 27N60W TO 24N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY BY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS N
OF 24N BETWEEN 50W-65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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