[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N-15N ALONG 18W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY E OF 20W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 12W-20W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N54W TO 15N52W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE...LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES AN OVERALL WESTWARD MOVEMENT...MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVERHEAD FROM 20N50W TO 15N61W
AND CONTINUES TO ADVECT THIS MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF 50W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 02N-16N BETWEEN
40W-53W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N20W TO
04N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN
25W-33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN
33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 29N96W TO A
BASE NEAR 22N87W. MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
N OF 26N E OF 93W AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
NEAR 31N89W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS N OF 27N W OF 93W...
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SE CONUS. OTHERWISE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN
THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD GRADUALLY WESTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE TRANQUIL FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 22N76W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS RESULTING IN
THE OVERALL CLEAR SKIES. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM
COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IS GENERATING THE ONLY DEEP
CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 80W-85W.
FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
STRONG TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA S OF 18N BETWEEN 66W-88W REACHING 30 KT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. THE ENHANCED
TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
CUBA NEAR 22N76W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS TO BEYOND 35N83W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...SE CONUS...
AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC REGION ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 27N77W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE.
THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS N OF 27N W OF 77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N73W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 57W NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
TO A BASE NEAR 25N65W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N56W S-SW
TO 26N60W TO 23N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM WEST AND 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY BY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS N
OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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