[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA ALONG 17W S OF
14N MOVING W AT 10 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
15W-19W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
WAVE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 16W-20W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 51W/52W S
OF 15N MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE...
BUT STILL ALIGNS WELL WITH A WEAK SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. RAIN AND SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL AT 12N16W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N21W ALONG
5N34W 10N48W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 25W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
AND NE GULF STATES...NAMELY COASTAL FLORIDA...ALABAMA...
MISSISSIPPI...AND LOUISIANA....N OF 27N E OF 92W. THERE ARE
REPORTS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOME THESE STATES. THIS
ACTIVE WEATHER IS CAUSED BY A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ALONG 30N FROM NEW ORLEANS TO JACKSONVILLE. FURTHER W...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF FROM S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W
TO S TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. 10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION OVER
THE NE GULF. ELSEWHERE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SW GULF
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT...CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OVER THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND N COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF S
OF 13N W OF 77W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS CREATING AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
32N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO
N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-30N W OF 78W. A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E
FROM 32N56W TO 27N62W TO 23N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N28W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 55W-70W SUPPORTING THE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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