[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N47W TO 9N50W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE...BUT STILL ALIGNS WELL WITH A
WEAK SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1320 UTC INDICATES BROAD
CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ REGION FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 48W-52W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL AT 12N16W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N21W ALONG
5N34W 10N48W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 25W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE N
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 85W-93W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF COASTAL FLORIDA...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...AND
LOUISIANA. THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING ACROSS
SOME THESE AREAS WITH THE MAJORITY UNDER FLOOD WATCH. THIS
ACTIVE WEATHER IS CAUSED BY THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT BORDERS THE NRN GULF FROM NE FLORIDA ALONG
30N TO S CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN TEXAS AND THE WRN GULF
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO IN
THE NW GULF ALONG 29N92W TO 26N96W CAUSING A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY. DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS KEEPING THE SW GULF UNDER FAIR
CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA AND WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY SLY FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN GULF. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
IS EXPECT TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
GUATEMALA TO CENTRAL CUBA. DRY AIR ALOFT IS WRAPPING AROUND THE
RIDGE SUPPORTING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
CREATING AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PAC
MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S IS SUPPORTING STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 79W-85W...AS WELL AS FROM
12N-16N BETWEEN 83W-85W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ACROSS THE ERN
CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER NE VENEZUELA. THIS RIDGE IS ALSO
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25
KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO MOVE
EWD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N58W
30N64W 27N70W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NE FLORIDA AT
30N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE FRONT ALONG 28N64W 25N74W.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH WITH AN
AREA EXTENDING TO THE N...N OF 28N BETWEEN 58W-62W. SOME
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NEAR THE NE FLORIDA
COAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF 77W.
AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE N...THE FRONT WILL SPLIT
LEAVING THE ERN PORTION TO CONTINUE SE AS A COLD FRONT WHILE THE
WRN HALF LIFTS N AND DISSIPATES. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N42W. THE UPPER LOW IS NOT CAUSING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH NEAR 33N30W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
ERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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