[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N48W TO 13N44W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS...THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN AREA
OF LOW-AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 41W-49W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...HOWEVER SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 44W-48W
AND IS LIKELY MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N19W TO 05N34W TO 08N49W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N25W TO
07N32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
03N-09N BETWEEN 24W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 95W. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE TROUGHING AND ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
MAXIMIZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS...IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 89W-91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING FARTHER NORTH FOCUSED ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA WESTWARD
ALONG THE GULF COAST TO EAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA NEAR
30N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF FROM
25N96W TO 29N92W AND IS CLOSELY LOCATED BENEATH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN
93W-96W THIS MORNING. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE AS A SURFACE TROUGH OR
PERHAPS A WEAK LOW OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
AREA DEVELOPS WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE NE GULF MONDAY AND RE-ESTABLISH INFLUENCE OVER
THE BASIN THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION OVER GUATEMALA AND BELIZE TO OVER
CUBA NEAR 23N76W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
AIR ALOFT AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH IS PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE
FROM 20N76W TO 10N82W. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W TO NEAR
09N81W. THIS TROUGHING IS LARGELY GENERATING AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
75W-83W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH ALONG 19N AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11N62W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MOSTLY DRY AIR E OF 70W WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. OF SIGNIFICANCE OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION...TRADEWIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT IS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 64W-82W REACHING 30 KT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE ENHANCED TRADES ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH TROUGH
AXIS ALONG 36N65W TO 29N70W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAK 1014 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N64W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE
LOW TO 28N74W THAT CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO
NEAR 29N81W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA STRAITS FROM 22N-30N
BETWEEN 78W-83W. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR 31N64W IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FARTHER EAST...THE
REST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AZORES NEAR 33N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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