[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0615 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N36W 8N37W 5N38W.
ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ
PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15 TO 7N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N20W
TO 8N34W AND 6N48W...INTO NORTHEASTERN SURINAME. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 3N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 24W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 7N BETWEEN 26W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 100W...PASSING THROUGH TEXAS TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO 25N85W AND BEYOND 29N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N95W 28N92W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN HALF
OF GUATEMALA...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO 18N96W ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 93W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 25N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N76W 24N87W...
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH WESTERN NICARAGUA BEYOND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN HALF
OF GUATEMALA...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO 18N96W ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RUNS FROM 20N67W TO 10N75W...TO 6N77W IN WESTERN COLOMBIA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N73W IN COLOMBIA TO 8N76W...
BEYOND COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...
FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET...
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE U.S.A. GULF
COAST STATES BETWEEN 60W AND 90W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SUPPORTS THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 30N/31N TO THE WEST
OF 65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 28N60W...TO 21N75W AT THE COAST
OF CUBA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 31N58W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N58W...ALONG 30N/31N
BETWEEN 58W AND BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N23W TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 30N42W...TO 25N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
26N76W 24N87W...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
24N42W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT USED TO CONNECT THIS FEATURE
TO A TROUGH IN SOUTH AMERICA HAS WEAKENED...FORMING JUST THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS THAT ARE RELATED
TO A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT
IS ALONG 30N/31N...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 35W AND 61W
FOR TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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