[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N33W TO 3N35W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS IN THE CARIBBEAN IS NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE AT LOW OR UPPER LEVELS AND IS DROPPED FROM THE
ANALYSIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 7N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 5N34W AND
RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N38W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N E OF 14W TO THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF
20W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA...AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM
6N51W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS E OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE W ATLC N OF 31N AND IS SUPPORTING A MEANDERING
STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT AT 07/1500 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM THE W ATLC OVER NE FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE
NEAR 30N81W ACROSS APALACHICOLA BAY TO OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
LOUISIANA RE-EMERGING INTO THE GULF NEAR VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA
TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. THIS FRONT NO LONGER
HAS ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND IS DRIVEN BY LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS. A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 07/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM
28N91W TO 26N96W. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE
NE GULF EXTENDING ALONG 87W FROM 25N-29N SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT AT 07/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM 29N87W TO 27N88W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE GULF N OF
23N E OF 96W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE GULF FRI NIGHT. THE MEANDERING
STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA TODAY THEN RETURN BACK
OVER THE NE GULF BRIEFLY ON FRI BEFORE DISSIPATING SAT.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AROUND THE W PORTION OF
THE STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS FROM
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS ACROSS W CUBA
INTO THE W ATLC. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES INDUCING AN INVERTED
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
TO OVER COLOMBIA. ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THERE IS
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN THE WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS. THE W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS E OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE W ATLC N OF 31N W OF 60W AND IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A MEANDERING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS BERMUDA ALONG 32N70W INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS NE FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM S OF THE FRONT W OF
67W. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND W
ATLC. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE E ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 25N41W AND AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 27N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N41W
EXTENDING A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS W ALONG 26N64W TO S FLORIDA AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
WILL START TO DRIFT SE BY EARLY FRI AND REACH FROM 32N67W TO
28N80W BY LATE FRI BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING FROM 32N60W
TO THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE SAT. THE ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND E TO W ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS SUN AND MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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