[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071215
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N31W 7N33W 2N34W.
ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ
PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO VENEZUELA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS
FROM 20N67W AND ENDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N18W TO 4N25W 4N33W AND 3N44W...BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER
3N44W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS TRINIDAD
AND NEARBY COASTAL NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA FROM 10N TO 11N
BETWEEN 61W AND 63W...FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W...IN THE
COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF GUYANA AND SURINAME...AND
FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W IN NORTHWESTERN SURINAME AND
CENTRAL GUYANA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 3N TO 9N TO THE EAST OF 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 97W...PASSING THROUGH TEXAS TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA/THE MISSISSIPPI GULF
COAST. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE U.S.A. GULF
COAST STATES BETWEEN 60W AND 90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO
21N77W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE WEST OF 90W. MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N86W 24N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF
28N...INCLUDING ACROSS FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
23N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N75W IN THE BAHAMAS...INTO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...
FOR 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH PANAMA TO NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...AND BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 90W IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND 94W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS...IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA RUNS THROUGH MEXICO NORTH-TO-SOUTH...AND
THEN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
20N67W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TOWARD LAKE MARACAIBO OF
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO
THE WEST OF 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO VENEZUELA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM
20N67W AND ENDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 83W IN SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA. THE STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS NEAR THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE MOMENT. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4...FOR A FEW AREAS OF WINDS AND SEAS. ONE SUCH AREA
CONSISTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET GOES
FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. A SECOND AREA CONSISTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 19N TO
THE EAST OF 82W. THE THIRD AREA GOES FROM 13N TO 20N TO THE WEST
OF 80W FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND AND 8 FOOT SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE U.S.A. GULF
COAST STATES BETWEEN 60W AND 90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 21N77W
AT THE COAST OF CUBA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO
31N67W AND 32N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N70W
TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N73W. THE
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N73W TO THE NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND THEN ALONG 29N/31N BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N25W TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N42W...TO 28N52W...TO 23N68W...TO 24N75W IN THE BAHAMAS...
INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SAHARA TO 18N26W...JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N40W...WITH NO NEARBY SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS THAT ARE RELATED
TO A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT
IS ALONG 30N/31N...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 35W AND 62W
FOR TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT







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