[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 5N TO 11N.
ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ
PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N. MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN
60W AND 70W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 20N67W AND ENDS IN SOUTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N18W AND 7N21W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 7N21W 7N32W 6N40W...TO COASTAL GUYANA
NEAR 8N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 3N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 97W...PASSING THROUGH TEXAS TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA/THE MISSISSIPPI GULF
COAST. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE U.S.A. GULF
COAST STATES BETWEEN 60W AND 90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO
22N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE WEST OF 90W. MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N85W 26N91W 22N95W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 24N TO 25N
BETWEEN 83W AND 84W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE
EAST OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 26N68W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W...INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N84W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS BETWEEN 83W AND 86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH PANAMA TO NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...AND BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE FROM SOUTHERN GUATEMALA TO THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...IN A PERSISTENT
AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA RUNS
THROUGH MEXICO NORTH-TO-SOUTH...AND THEN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N67W...THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE...TOWARD LAKE MARACAIBO OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND
80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 84W IN
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN A FEW
CELLS COVERS COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 76W AND 77W NEAR
THE BORDER WITH PANAMA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...
FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
IN MANY AREAS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE U.S.A. GULF
COAST STATES BETWEEN 60W AND 90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 22N78W
AT THE COAST OF CUBA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
32N67W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N67W TO A 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N73W. THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 32N73W TO THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND
THEN ALONG 30N/31N BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N31W TO
A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N44W...TO
27N56W...TO 26N68W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W...INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N84W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS THAT ARE RELATED
TO A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS
ALONG 30N/31N...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 35W AND 62W FOR
TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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