[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 052354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN ATLC ALONG 12N22W TO 5N25W MOVING W
AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE WWD SHORTLY. THE WAVE LIES
WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 22W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N55W TO 9N59W MOVING NW NEAR 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 58W-63W
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA AT 11N15W CONTINUING TO 8N20W. THE ITCZ PICKS UP AT 5N27W
ON THE W SIDE OF TROPICAL WAVE AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N37W 4N48W.
BESIDES NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 34W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AMPLE MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO
DUE TO DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WRN
CARIBBEAN AND ERN GULF AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MEXICO
AND SW TEXAS. THIS PATTERN PROVIDES MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN AND IS HELPING SUPPORT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 84W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO DOT MUCH OF FLORIDA ESPECIALLY OVER THE PANHANDLE. NUMEROUS
AND STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA
AS WELL AS THE NE MEXICO COAST. AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 27N91W TO 30N94W. THIS MAY BE
ENHANCING SOME OF THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE AXIS. THE FAR WRN GULF
IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE BASIN DUE TO A SMALL AREA OF
DRY AIR ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY IN THE WRN GULF FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MOIST CONDITIONS REMAINING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STAYS VERY SIMILAR.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NICARAGUA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE W ATLC. THE
MAJORITY OF THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE MOSTLY DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND THE E SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE DRY AIR IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA PARTIALLY INFLUENCED BY THE E PACIFIC MONSOON
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO NRN
COLOMBIA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO IMPACTING THE ERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS E OF 63W DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTING WWD AHEAD
OF A TROPICAL WAVE STILL E OF THE ISLANDS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
15-20 KT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD TOWARDS THE BASIN. CONVECTION IS
ALSO LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
FLORIDA AND OVER THE FAR WRN ATLC. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE NW ATLC WHICH IS HELPING PRODUCE STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 64W-80W...AS WELL AS
FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 77W-81W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
N OF 22N W OF 70W. A LINE OF SHOWERS...REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATED
FRONT...EXTENDS FROM 31N54W TO 24N65W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 47W SUPPORTING
AN EQUALLY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 28N36W
PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM NW
AFRICA ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 20N31W. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION
AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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