[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1735 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS COUGH UP IN BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE
ITCZ...ANALYZED FROM 11N21W TO 5N23W MOVING W AT ABOUT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE NOTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 20W-25W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 270 NM OFF THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS
ANALYZED FROM 13N54W TO 8N56W MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. A BULK OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDS THE WAVE AXIS IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALED LITTLE
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE AXIS. SCATTERED WEAK TO
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES S OF MARTINIQUE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES TOWARDS HISPANIOLA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SMALL PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLC BASIN
THROUGH THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 7N20W. THE
ITCZ STARTS FROM 5N25W...WEST OF TROPICAL WAVE AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N32W 5N40W TO 3N48W. BESIDES CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER A GREAT
AREA OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. FROM SATELLITE AND DOPPLER
RADAR VIEW...THE COVERAGE TAKES FROM 22N-30N E OF 93W. THESE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING ENE AT ABOUT 15 KTS. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
IS FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL BASIN FROM 22N-26 BETWEEN 85W-92W.
DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT...THE OVERALL ACTIVITY IS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRIVEN...AS A WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS JET IS NOTED ON MOST S-ERN CONUS UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS. MODEL DATA LOCATES THE JET AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF
WEEK DEVELOPMENT IS FOUND OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS S OF CORPUS
CHRISTI. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ACROSS THE GULF
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PANAMA ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE OVERALL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. TRADEWIND FLOW
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND
WESTERN VENEZUELA BETWEEN 68W-75W. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIR ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...SHORT RANGE COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST SOME MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER
THE FAR NW BASIN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WATERS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES TOWARDS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN'S DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 28N35W. ONLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE IN THE
VICINITY OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 32N51W TO 24N67W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY COVERS THE FAR WRN AREA S OF 28N W OF 72W AFFECTING
MOSTLY THE WATERS NEAR THE BAHAMAS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING
ESE AND IT COULD INTRODUCE SOME MODERATE CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTHERN FRINGE DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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