[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N21W 8N23W 5N23W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NOT
PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION ALREADY ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N54W 9N55W 7N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE WATER FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR
15N17W TO 13N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE STARTS
NEAR 5N26W 4N40W...TO 4N52W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND
NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...
FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 37W AND 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 6N14W 3N10W BEYOND THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 1N.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS IN MEXICO
NEAR 24N102W ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED...GIVING WAY TO
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...THAT NOW COVERS MEXICO
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W AND 108W. STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF
27N100W IN BETWEEN NUEVO LAREDO AND SABINAS HIDALGO IN MEXICO.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT
04/1200 UTC WAS 0.80 INCHES IN MONTERREY MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BEYOND THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH A BAHAMAS 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 24N76W...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE TIP OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...TO A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N87W...TOWARD THE BORDER OF THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF
92W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 88W...
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR...WESTERN
HONDURAS...AND EASTERN GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 17N62W TO
A 14N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 7N69W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W BEYOND 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ALONG THE PACIFIC OCEAN COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE EAST OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 32N50W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF
48W. A SEPARATE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N67W TO 21N67W.
THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 30N54W. THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES FROM
30N54W TO 27N60W AND 24N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N44W 27N54W 21N69W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N23W TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N31W TO 26N39W...24N49W AND 20N64W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS THAT ARE RELATED TO THE
CURRENT COLD FRONT...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W
FOR TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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