[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN ATLC ALONG 12N21W TO 6N23W MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF A SURGE IN MOISTURE
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ REGION FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
18W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N51W TO 5N56W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS
FROM EARLIER TODAY ALSO INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 51W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 52W-56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA ENDING AT THE COAST
OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W. THE ITCZ PICKS UP AT 6N25W ON THE W
SIDE OF TROPICAL WAVE AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N27W 4N51W. BESIDES
CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-6N BETWEEN 33W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DESPITE SURFACE RIDGING COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 23N78W TOWARDS THE NW
GULF...AMPLE MOISTURE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF BEING
DRAWN AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG 85W WHICH IS PROVIDING MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM
23N-28N BETWEEN 83W-93W. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
ALSO NEAR THE NRN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANTI-CYCLONIC
SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE RANGING FROM 10-15 KT WITH AREA
OF HIGHER WINDS IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE FORMING IN THE
FAR SW GULF IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DRY AIR COVERS THE FAR WRN
GULF W OF 94W PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT SURFACE
RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN ACCOMPANIED BY MOIST
CONDITIONS. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL FORM OVER THE WRN GULF AND
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE LATER IN THE WEEK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
85W. THE RIDGE SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1017 MB
HIGH N OF CENTRAL CUBA AT 23N78W. WHILE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
OVER WATER...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER ERN CUBA
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY OVER COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH BOTH COUNTRIES TO A 1009 MB LOW OVER NRN
COLOMBIA AT 9N75W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS COVERS THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR ERN
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
VENEZUELA...BUT IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BESIDES A
FEW UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH
NEAR 23N78W. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N55W CONTINUING ALONG 27N61W 24N69W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE AXIS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS
ALONG 40W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A
1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N26W THAT IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER
THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING ACROSS THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 25N31W
CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON







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