[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N49W 10N51W 3N52W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATER TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 50W
AND 55W. CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN ORDER TO BE ABLE TO IDENTIFY THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR
11N15W TO 6N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES
FROM 6N22W TO 4N30W 2N34W...BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER 2N34W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 3N TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 20W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE EAST
OF 10W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR
24N102W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 108W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N
BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 91W...BECOMING ISOLATED MODERATE
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 91W. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS JUST
OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO
A SECOND 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N85W...
TOWARD THE GULF COAST BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 93W. BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 90W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST
OF 88W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. REMAINING
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RE-DEVELOPING AFTER EARLIER AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION HAD DEVELOPED AND ALREADY DISSIPATED...COVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
A 23N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TO A 13N63W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 6N71W IN COLOMBIA JUST OFF THE VENEZUELA
BORDER. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF 65W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N64W...NEAR BERMUDA...
TO 27N67W AND 22N72W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 26N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN
180 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT...TO THE
NORTH OF 27N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 31N38W. THE FRONT
DISSIPATES FROM 31N38W TO 28N46W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N24W...23N39W 20N51W 20N71W. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS THAT ARE
RELATED TO THE CURRENT COLD FRONT...AND A SECOND COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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