[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N47W TO 10N42W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO STRETCH NORTHEAST DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHEARING ENERGY AWAY WHICH
ORIGINATE OVER THE SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY HOWEVER STILL INDICATES AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
05N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N22W TO 02N36W TO 02N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 12W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING AS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 16N84W. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS...
INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
EVENING AND THIS ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ISOLATED MOVING NORTH
TOWARDS 24N BETWEEN 81W AND 91W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB
HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 30N86W. ASIDE FROM LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS NEAR THE HIGH CENTER...E-SE WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OBSERVED CURRENTLY AND ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
BASIN. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
CUBA NORTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON BAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N84W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NE
OVER EASTERN CUBA AND BEYOND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC.
NORTH AND WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHICH ARE
GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF
82W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THE
MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IS OCCURRING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...DRIER AND STABLE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. A
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EXTENDS FROM 20N55W TO OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W...
HOWEVER LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO GENERATE CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE ONTARIO AND EXTENDS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 29N75W. WHILE
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGHING IS WELL
NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
32N68W TO 28N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. EAST OF THE FRONT
HOWEVER...MORE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT IS FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N65W
NEAR BERMUDA SW TO NEAR 26N72W. A NARROW STRIP OF MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED FROM 23N80W TO 32N61W AND ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS TRAIL FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 33N17W TO A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N25W THEN
TO A 1021 HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N29W THEN W-SW TO A 1019 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 22N59W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOSTLY
FAIR CONDITIONS AND OVERALL CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL N OF 10N E OF
60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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