[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N40W TO 2N45W MOVING W NEAR 10-15
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 40W-47W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO
5N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N21W TO 2N35W TO 3N44W TO N BRAZIL
NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 12W-15W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 30W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN
47W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N84W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO. 10 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 24N AND
E OF 86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE
GULF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE SE TO THE N
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FAIR WEATHER. ALSO EXPECT
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE W FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA. A 1020 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE RESULTANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 78W-81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN
83W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 85W-88W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND W CUBA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 79W-85W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF HONDURAS NEAR
18N86W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W. UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER TRINIDAD AND BARBADOS. EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N73W
TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 73W-75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM 27N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 62W-68W.
THIS CONVECTION IS MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC. A 1020 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N57W. THE TAIL END OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N39W
27N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1024
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N26W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. EXPECT BOTH COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA







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