[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N31W TO 11N29W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ
AXIS WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING AN AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE BETWEEN 27W AND 34W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 29W-34W AND
IS LIKELY MORE CLOSELY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ ZONE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
08N21W TO 06N30W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
16W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST NEAR 30N90W TO A BASE
OVER THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 27N94W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N89W TO 28N97W THAT
REMAINS CONVECTION FREE THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AS A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N84W TO 25N87W TO 21N94W
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING SE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS
LOCATED S OF 24N BETWEEN 81W-88W. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EAST OF THE BASIN BY LATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ANCHOR ITSELF OVER
THE EASTERN GULF EARLY SUNDAY AND PROVIDE E-SE WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH
TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N80W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS N-NE OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO BEYOND 32N71W. W OF
80W ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM GUATEMALA OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. GIVEN THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN A 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N91W IN SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N83W. THIS AREA
INCLUDES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION
IS ONGOING THIS EVENING. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND MOST OF NICARAGUA AS
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
11N-16N BETWEEN 83W-86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FALLS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A PORTION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N60W TO OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE BASIN BETWEEN 65W-80W THIS EVENING.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EXTREME SE WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N E OF 65W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SW
NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
OVER EASTERN CUBA TO BEYOND 32N71W. MUCH OF THE FLOW WEST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS DIFFLUENT AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 73W...
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA STRAITS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FOUND ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 57W-68W. FARTHER
TO THE EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N46W
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 57W. HOWEVER...A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N22W TO 26N35W. ASIDE FROM A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT...LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXAMINING THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT FROM CIMSS...MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLC
IS SHROUDED IN SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST S OF 30N E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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