[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N26W 8N28W 2N28W.
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS WAVE...WITH STRONGEST SIGNAL AT 700 HPA.
NO SURFACE SIGNAL HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATIONS REVEAL CYCLONIC
TURNING ABOUT A MOISTURE MAXIMUM NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE WAVE. THE DAKAR UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED THIS WAVE PASSING
THE STATION ALOFT AROUND 12Z ON 30 MAY.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ABOUT 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE WAVE.

A WEAKENING AND ILL DEFINED CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
20N65W...CROSSING THE EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO...TO 14N68W
TO 8N69W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND REACHES
11N63W ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND
67W IS BEING ENHANCED BY SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STRAIGHT LINE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION BELOW 700 HPA ARE AIDING IN MASKING THE
WAVE SIGNAL AND WEAKENING THE WAVE STRUCTURE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER ANIMATIONS SHOW THAT THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHEAR THAT RANGES FROM 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ALSO IS ACTING TO CUT OFF ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER THAT IS BEHIND THE WAVE MOVED
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NOW IT IS PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND GUSTS IN ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 9N18W AND 7N25W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 7N25W
TO 3N35W AND ALONG 41W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 15W AND
17W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N19W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR
25N106W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH
OF 22N BETWEEN 100W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.
PRECIPITATION ALREADY HAS WEAKENED ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM
22N TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TROUGH CUTS
THROUGH LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND SOUTH TEXAS ALONG 27N. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS CUBA...AND BEYOND FLORIDA
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN CLUSTERS COVERS THE AREA FROM CUBA
TO SOUTH FLORIDA BETWEEN 77W IN THE BAHAMAS AND 89W IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

.ATLC N OF 27N E OF 40W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NW
SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ATLC FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 38W AND 47W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ATLC 18 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 31N79W TO 29N81W. N OF 26N W
OF 75W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 31N77W TO 29N81W. N OF 27N E OF
FRONT TO 72W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 31N73W TO 28N81W. WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION HAVE SPREAD FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD...INTO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THAT PART OF CUBA THAT IS TO
THE WEST OF 80W APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THAT IS BEING AFFECTED BY SCATTERED STRONG PRECIPITATION AT THIS
MOMENT. ALL THE REST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION LINGERS ALONG IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. A WEAKENING
AND ILL DEFINED CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N65W...
CROSSING THE EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO...TO 14N68W TO 8N69W IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND REACHES 11N63W ALONG THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OF THIS
TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W IS BEING ENHANCED
BY SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA...MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE GULF
OF URABA OF COLOMBIA...13N81W...BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N79W...BEYOND
9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS COVERING THE AREA
FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W AROUND 01/0915 UTC. THAT
PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED...LEAVING ONLY ONE CELL OF STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N76W ALONG
THE COLOMBIA COAST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 81W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N65W 31N63W 26N63W AND
20N64W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N64W TO 30N67W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 30N67W TO
28N71W. 2N71W TO 25N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE BAHAMAS
AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N49W 24N56W 15N54W 11N55W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND
60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO
17N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W...POSSIBLY REACHING SOME OF THE NEARBY
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 54W AND 61W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION OF THE 31N49W
11N55W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE 13N58W 7N59W TROPICAL WAVE.
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 34N20W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 25N BETWEEN 18W AND 50W. THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 28N34W.
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE...TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE
EAST OF 40W...FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 38W AND 47W...AND
WITH THE 31N79W 29N81W COLD FRONT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES 33N17W TO 23N28W TO A 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N46W...TO 30N69W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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