[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 14N MOVING
W AT 10-15 KT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS WAVE...WITH STRONGEST SIGNAL APPEARING AT 700
HPA. NO SURFACE SIGNAL HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES...WHILE TPW ANIMATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO REVEAL CYCLONIC
TURNING CENTERED ALONG 06N27W. THE DAKAR UPPER AIR SOUNDING
REVEALS THIS WAVE PASSING THE STATION ALOFT AROUND 12Z ON 30
MAY.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
120 NM OF 06N27W. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS SUGGESTED ALONG 10W
AND POISED TO EXIT W AFRICA IN THE NEXT 18-24 HRS.

A WEAKENING AND ILL DEFINED CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ESTIMATED
FROM W VENEZUELA NEAR 68W THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
NEAR 20N65W. STRAIGHT LINE SELY WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION BELOW
700 HPA ARE AIDING IN MASKING THE WAVE SIGNAL AND WEAKENING THE
WAVE STRUCTURE. TPW ANIMATIONS SHOW HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE S OF 15N. 40-50 KT OF NW WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN
ARE ALSO ACTING TO WEAKEN THE WAVE. SAL BEHIND THE WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITH
AND BEHIND THE WAVE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT ATLC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SPREAD FROM THE WAVE
AXIS ALONG 14N67W EWD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N14W TO NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 07N26W. THE ITCZ AXIS
BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 27W NEAR 06N28W TO 03N35W TO
THE COAST OF N BRAZIL NEAR 04N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 16W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 31W AND
36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN N-NE TO BEYOND
32N75W HAS MAINTAIN PERSISTENT ELONGATE MIDDLE/UPPER TROUGHING
FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF SW THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THE PAST
FEW DAYS. A NEGATIVE TILE MIDDLE/UPPER CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A
CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS SWEEPING E-SE ACROSS THE NW GULF
COAST AND HAS BEEN IGNITING VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
COASTAL PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI. THE
UPPER CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH S CENTRAL LOUISIANA EXTENDING SW INTO THE SE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS. CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AND ALONG THE FRONT
HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE PAST 3 HOURS AS
A JET SEGMENT E OF THE TROUGH HAS LIFTED OUT OF THE REGION.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE RESIDES ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY N ACROSS THE SE GULF...WHERE A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IS INDUCING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM LA ISLA
DE JUVENTUD CUBA N-NW ACROSS THE W TIP OF CUBA TO THE SE GULF
NEAR 24.5N85W. THIS STRONG CONVECTION IS OTHERWISE EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION SPREADING FROM THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN TO ACROSS
EXTREME S FLORIDA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE EXTENDS FROM
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND IS PRODUCING
LIGHT TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF...WITH NE
TO E WINDS ACROSS THE SW GULF DUE TO THE TYPICAL EVENING TROUGH
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO REACH
FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...AND IS BEING
STRONGLY SHEARED BY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN. SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
10N TO 17N W OF 82W...WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS CONVERGING DUE
TO THE LIFTING MONSOON TROUGH IN THE FAR EPAC...AND INSTABILITY
INDUCED BY PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ON ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N79W WITH
SUBSIDENCE TO THE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 68W.
MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...WITH SLY FLOW OPENING UP INTO
THE GULF THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 30N57W IS CUT OFF
FROM THE MEAN UPPER FLOW AND IS CURRENTLY BEING NUDGED EWD BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER TOP OF W CARIB RIDGE. TROUGH
EXTENDS SW INTO NE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 11N64W. UPPER RIDGE
PREVAILS SE OF TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N FROM W
COAST OF AFRICA TO 55W. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
24.5N46W EXTENDING E TO 35W AND W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. MODERATE NE
TRADEWINDS ARE FOUND S OF THIS RIDGE BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. A MID
LATITUDE COLD FRONT ENTERS NE PORTIONS FROM NEAR 31N25W TO
27N34W WITH WEAK STRATIFORM PRECIP ALONG AND TO 120 NM NW OF
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
STRIPLING





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net