[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N20W TO 12N22W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN
20W-26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N38W TO 10N40W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 38W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N68W TO 10N71W OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MOVING W AT 25 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN
65W-72W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N87W TO 10N89W OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AT 20 KT.
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY S OF EL SALVADOR OVER THE E PACIFIC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AT
19N16W TO 12N20W TO AN EMBEDDED 1011 MB TROPICAL LOW AT 11N22W
TO 9N25W TO 10N35W TO AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW AT 9N40W TO 9N45W
TO 8N51W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N51W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA
AT 7N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
WEST AFRICA FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 15W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF A TROPICAL LOW FROM
9N-15N BETWEEN 20W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-8N BETWEEN 25W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF A TROPICAL LOW FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 38W-44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 45W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N88W. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THE HIGH ARE MOSTLY A SLIGHT
BREEZE AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA
TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 33N84W 28N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 83W-89W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW GULF. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N82W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF.
EXPECT...CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A MONSOON
TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO THE E PACIFIC
ALONG 8N75W 8N83W. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE MODERATE
CONVECTION IS THUS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 74W-86W. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONGEST SURFACE
WINDS ARE JUST N OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN
58W-62W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
16N-21N BETWEEN 60W-65W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO MOVE W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS ENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N59W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E FROM 34N46W TO 27N52W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER 1025 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N37W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC AT
26N43W...29N68W...23N82W. AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 40W-45W...AND FROM
27N-31N BETWEEN 71W-76W. EXAMINING GOES-R PROVING GROUND DUST
IMAGERY...THE ATLANTIC HAS THICK SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST LOCATED
FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN E OF 35W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD
FRONT TO ADVECT CONVECTION OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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