[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

MID ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N36W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR
9N36W MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND IS MOVING WSW 5-10 KT ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. LOW
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP MOISTURE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN
34W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N66W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS
PUERTO RICO/MONA PASSAGE ALONG 17N67W TO 12N67W MOVING W 20-25
KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 64W-69W
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N84W IN THE W CARIBBEAN TO OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA TO BEYOND 13N85W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE WEAKER SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 15N17W EXTENDING ALONG 11N24W THROUGH THE 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 9N37W TO 8N49W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 9N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 19W-24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA
BETWEEN 8N-13N AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
BETWEEN 40W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF N OF 23N AND IS ANCHORED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER W
CUBA NEAR 23N83W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING W TO A SECOND
UPPER LOW INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. THIS IS GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE
GULF S OF 26N E OF 87W. AN NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS E OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE CAROLINAS TO GEORGIA SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS AND A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS AT 31/0300 UTC FROM S GEORGIA OVER TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY ALONG 29N87W TO THE
SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO INLAND
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W ATLC
ACROSS S FLORIDA THROUGH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 23N90W TO GULF W
COAST NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER SLIGHTLY
THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N83W COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 74W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 82W-87W. AN UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO
NEAR 17N85W PROVING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 75W. THE ACTIVITY
OVER E CARIBBEAN AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO IS DUE TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN W CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK W MOVING OUT OF THE BASIN BY EARLY WED. E CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND
THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR
29N69W TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO/NW CARIBBEAN
CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N83W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN
70W-80W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR
15N35W THEN EXTENDING AN AXIS W ALONG 15N53W THEN NW TO 23N68W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 17N58W TO
22N67W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC TO THE CENTRAL
ATLC THROUGH 32N27W ALONG 29N36W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N44W TO
22N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N45W THROUGH A 1019 MB
LOW NEAR 31N47W TO 28N50W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 26N-30N
BETWEEN 49W-57W. OTHERWISE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ATLC SUPPORTING A SERIES OF 1023 AND 1024 MB HIGHS N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO 29N TUE
SHIFTING BACK S AGAIN ON WED THEN WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
SUN. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE WEST S OF 22N TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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