[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N35W TO 10N36W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN
34W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N60W TO 10N63W OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
MOVING W AT 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 59W-64W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N80W TO 10N82W OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AT 25
KT. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
82W-86W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT
12N16W TO 10N20W TO 10N30W TO AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB TROPICAL LOW
AT 9N36W TO 8N42W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N42W TO 6N53W TO
10N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 14W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 24W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 34W-38W IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL LOW.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 38W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N92W. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THE HIGH ARE MOSTLY A SLIGHT
BREEZE AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA TO THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 33N82W 29N85W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 81W-87W. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
VERACRUZ AND TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 93W-98W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW GULF. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 23N100W ENHANCING
THE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N81W.
EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OVER GEORGIA AND N FLORIDA IN 24
HOURS. ADDITIONAL PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL REACH THE NE GULF.
ALSO EXPECT RAIN AND SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A MONSOON
TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO COSTA RICA TO
THE E PACIFIC ALONG 8N76W 8N80W 10N86W. A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS THUS FROM
3N-11N BETWEEN 75W-83W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE JUST N OF N COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOSTLY DUE TO A
TROPICAL WAVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
EXTENDS W OF A LINE FROM N COLOMBIA TO BELIZE. MORE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SMALL 1023 MB HIGH IS ENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N58W.
A SMALL 1018 MB LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 31N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 45W-51W. ANOTHER 1023 MN HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N35W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC AT
34N24W...27N41W...27N69W. AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 67W-71W...AND FROM
27N-31N BETWEEN 48W-51W. EXAMINING GOES-R PROVING GROUND DUST
IMAGERY...THE ATLANTIC HAS THICK SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST LOCATED
FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN E OF 50W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A TROPICAL
WAVE TO ADVECT CONVECTION N OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO... AND
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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