[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 10N TO
20N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO
18N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOWS
UP IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A CLEARING IS IN
THE WIDESPREAD SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN MUCH OF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 27/1148 UTC
SHOWED SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 9N TO 20N.
THIS WAVE IS ON TOP OF BARBADOS...AND ABOUT 85 NM TO THE EAST
OF THE REST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
62W AND 65W...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 94W/95W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...AND THROUGH
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM EARLIER AND ALREADY DISSIPATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
AND POSSIBLE LINGERING RAINSHOWERS...REMAIN IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LAND AREAS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN
90W AND 100W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 9N26W 12N33W 12N42W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 10N45W AND
IT GOES TO 7N48W AND 6N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 34W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N
BETWEEN 48W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N102W...
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS TEXAS...MEXICO...AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES FROM COASTAL ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI...INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA/THROUGH THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO A
WEAKENING CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 94W/95W TO THE
SOUTH OF 22N...AND THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER AND ALREADY DISSIPATED
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...AND POSSIBLE LINGERING RAINSHOWERS...
REMAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND LAND AREAS THAT ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 26N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 27N86W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N76W...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA TO 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM TO THE
NORTH OF JAMAICA BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 82W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING
EASTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 18N72W...OFF
THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...TO 15N74W TO 11N76W NEAR THE COLOMBIA
COAST. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 80W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 9N TO 20N. THIS WAVE IS ON TOP OF
BARBADOS...AND ABOUT 85 NM TO THE EAST OF THE REST OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N
TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W...IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 8N81W IN PANAMA...AND
BEYOND 8N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA
COAST AND 80W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN EARLIER
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N
TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THIS AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO
28N50W...TO A 23N59W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 23N59W TO 16N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 58W AND
62W FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 32N67W 29N67W 26N69W. THIS TROUGH REMAINS FROM
THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OF SIX HOURS AGO. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W
AND 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N55W TO 22N59W. THIS TROUGH
USED TO BE PART OF THE 59W/60W TROPICAL WAVE. A 23N59W UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEARBY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N24W 24N26W 19N30W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 20W AND 41W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net