[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N40W 14N41W 10N41W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 18N
BETWEEN 42W AND 46W.  MOVING W AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
TRPCL ATLC FROM 20N39W TO 10N39W. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A CLEARING
IS IN THE WIDESPREAD SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN MUCH OF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N58W 14N59W 9N59W.
THIS WAVE IS ABOUT 40 NM TO THE EAST OF BARBADOS...AND ABOUT
120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE REST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W
AND 59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W...MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 21N92W 18N93W 14N93W...AND THROUGH THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION WAS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA AROUND 27/2015 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION
DISSIPATED AND IT GAVE WAY TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT COVERED THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS AROUND 28/0145 UTC. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC PRECIPITATION HAVE
BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. SOME PRECIPITATION
REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 10N24W 10N33W AND 9N45W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
9N45W TO 8N51W AND 9N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 19W...
FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 34W...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
7N TO 11N BETWEEN 38W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N100W
ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS TEXAS...MEXICO...AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N TO 33N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE WESTERN ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC TO A WEAKENING CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS ABOUT
120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 21N92W 18N93W 14N93W...AND THROUGH THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION WAS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA AROUND 27/2015 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION
DISSIPATED AND IT GAVE WAY TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT COVERED THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NEARBY
COASTAL WATERS AROUND 28/0145 UTC. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN WARMING
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. SOME PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N88W. THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS PART OF A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 24N68W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE 27N88W
HIGH CENTER...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS
GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N76W...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM JAMAICA AND
HISPANIOLA TO 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. EARLIER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA-SIDE COASTAL AREAS
OF CUBA HAS DISSIPATED ALREADY.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 78W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING EASTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 17N71W...OFF THE COAST
OF HISPANIOLA...TO 15N73W TO 11N75W NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 80W.

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 58W AND 63W...MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
9N80W IN PANAMA...AND BEYOND 9N83W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 5N TO 9N
BETWEEN 74W AND 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3 FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
10 TO 14 FEET FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W...
DIMINISHING TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 24 HOURS OR SO. THE AREA THAT
IS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 83W WILL EXPERIENCE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO
29N53W...TO A 23N59W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 23N59W TO 16N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 58W
AND 62W FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.


 INTO



SMALL 1018 MB
LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N61W 28N63W 28N70W. SCATTERED
RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT. FURTHER E...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N51W TO 23N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N42W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.
EXAMINING GOES-R PROVING GROUND DUST IMAGERY...THE ATLANTIC HAS
THICK SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST LOCATED FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN E OF
45W...AND AN OLDER OUTBREAK OF DUST EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO 88W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND W
ATLANTIC TO 45W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT
.ATLC TROPICAL WAVE FROM 10N TO 20N ALONG 40W. FROM 15N TO 19N
WITHIN 210 NM W OF WAVE NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE FROM 10N TO 20N ALONG 48N. N OF
16N WITHIN 210 NM W OF WAVE NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
N OF 16N WITHIN 360 NM E OF WAVE E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE FROM 09N TO 21N ALONG 58W. N OF
16N WITHIN 150 NM W OF WAVE NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
N OF 16N WITHIN 420 NM E OF WAVE E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 9 FT.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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