[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE CENTRAL TRPCL
ATLC FROM 20N39W TO 10N39W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. THERE IS ALSO A CLEARING IN THE WIDESPREAD SAHARAN AIR
LAYER THAT IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. A RECENT
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE IS LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE AXIS. DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF DUST
NEAR THE WAVE...MOST DEEP CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED EXCEPT FOR
AREAS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING W AT
15-20 KT CURRENTLY FROM 20N56W TO 10N57W. THE WAVE LIES ON THE W
SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE NEAR
THE ITCZ REGION FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 54W-58W. SIMILAR RAIN IS W
OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
57W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 23N90W TO 15N92W
MOVING W AT 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE WAVE LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 87W-93W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT
12N16W TO 11N30W TO 9N40W TO 9N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
9N46W TO 12N50W TO THE COAST OF E VENEZUELA AT 9N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 18W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 29W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N88W. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE MOSTLY A SLIGHT BREEZE AT 10 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE HIGH CENTER FROM
28N-31N BETWEEN 88W-93W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FURTHER S...A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-22N
BETWEEN 87W-93W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 96W-98W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN
81W-82W...AND OVER W CUBA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 82W-85W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION
OVER THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO
AND GUATEMALA FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 89W-95W. FURTHER S...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 76W-84W. 15-30
KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS ARE JUST N OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER W CUBA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN TO PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SMALL 1018 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N60W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N61W 28N63W
28N70W. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
FRONT. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N51W TO
23N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N42W
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. EXAMINING GOES-R PROVING GROUND
DUST IMAGERY...THE ATLANTIC HAS THICK SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST
LOCATED FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN E OF 45W...AND AN OLDER OUTBREAK OF
DUST EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO 88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT ALSO
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC TO 45W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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